Mathematics of crafting. (Why i get more perfect crafts than rares)

[Baldur 0]

So one thing I've noticed, and I've seen other crafters come across this  as well, is that we're statistically more likely to craft PERFECT items than we are RARE items.

 

Why is this you ask?

 

Because typically Rares have the same range as perfect (e.g. 1 number).

 

However, if you're involved in your crafting enough to get a +1 CD item, this actually doubles the likelihood of crafting a Perfect over crafting a rare.

 

Let's take the merchant table for example, since that's what I am. Also, mine doesn't change based on level.

 

 

[1] = Critical failure (Lose all materials you were trading)

[2-3] = Fail (Lose half of materials you were trading)
[4] = Bad item (No deal)
[5-7] = Good item  (Uncommon vouchers x2)
[8-9] = Uncommon item (Rare voucher x1)

[10] = Rare item (Rare voucher x2)

[11] = Rare item (Perfect voucher x1)

[12] = Perfect item (VIP Perfect voucher x 1)

 

To try and make this less confusing, take a look at the "Perfect Voucher" This is by far my most demanded voucher because it's the only one that's actually useful. People don't need rare vouchers because they plan on getting perfects, and people (Generally) don't need VIPs because there is no reason to change the type of an item unless you're a crafter trying to change an already approved item into one a customer wants.

 

Now I have a +1 CD item, this means in order to craft a "Rare Item" and get a "Perfect Voucher" I need to roll a 10. EXACTLY 10. If I roll an 11 (the rare item number I want) then with the +1 I get a 12, which is the VIP perfect number.

 

What does this all mean?

 

Well, what we've forgotten is that there is an unofficial crafting number that isn't on this table, and that's #13. Due to the lack of the table going any further, CD: 13 defaults to the highest value, aka 12, and I get a VIP voucher.

 

TLDR;

 

With a +1 CD Item, I can roll 2 numbers (12 or 13) to get the best result, while I can only roll 1 number for a rare item. This is true for all crafts until they get high enough level to have multiple die results for Rare items (Somewhere around rank 5) but this only means they have an equal chance to craft a rare and a perfect.

 

However this affords us an opportunity.

 

As we had mentioned, being able to craft perfects at a low level seems a stretch. What I recommend is putting CD: 13 on the crafting table. At low levels, this can be to craft perfects, and 12 would craft rares. As the skill progresses, you increase the size of the rare roll (As the table already does) with rank, and THEN you increase the size of the perfect roll numbers.

 

If we're working with a 12 integer table, we need to consider the comparable rate of success between each item. How often do the GMs want us to craft perfects vs others? How often should we have success vs failure?

 

The other option would be to treat CD like we do the BD, in that a perfect can only be made with a NATURAL CD of 12.

 

Statistically speaking, I would recommend the following breakdown for Rank 1 crafting, and then adjust the growth from the bottom up (increase the rate of Uncommon vs failure, then rare, then perfect). The table would look something like this.

 

Perfect: CD 13

Rare: CD 11-12

Uncommon: CD 7-10

Good: CD 2-6

Fail: CD 1

 

You also have to consider that for every crafter other than a Tailor, a good item is the same as failure under the current system. This will change for Artisan once housing comes out and they can make furniture.

 

Progression should increase slowly, alternating between increase the crafting attempts and increasing the good result table. Uncommon crafted items are almost as useless as good items, because they can be dropped from Mobs, and no better quality can be other than from Floor bosses.

 

The other stumbling block of this is if we ever increase the number of enhancement slots on an item, but there is actually a solution to that in the lore already, and that is taking an item to a crafter who then tries to increase the quality of an existing item. This has a chance to loose the item, but can be repeated multiple times until it eventually reaches a predetermined maximum of the base item. This also helps with the issue of resource scarcity.

 

I would propose when a smith creates an item, they crease the BASE item. The quality of the base item reflects the number of times it can be enhanced.

 

Good: 0 times

Uncommon: Once

Rare: Twice

Perfect: Thrice

 

Once the base item was crafted, the crafter would then attempt to enhance the item, using the same table. So you would take an uncommon item, roll to enhance it. Hey! I scored a rare! That makes this item +2. The smith could then make another attempt to enhance it, but this would be capped at +3

 

If the base item was a rare, it could be approved on twice, for a POSSIBLE +6. You would forge the base, then roll for the first improvement (up to +3) then roll for the second improvement (up to +3 more).

 

Same with a perfect item, which would go up to as high as +9. If you ran with my idea of a perfect being a 13, it means only a lucky crafter who is adequately prepared would even have a chance of crafting these. At the highest level, say someone could roll a 12 OR a 13 for a perfect craft, by having the diminishing results, it would make actually achieving a +9 item either EXTREMELY lucky (you would need to roll a perfect 3 times on the same item, each attempt costing ats). Or very expensive (if you don't hit that higher number, you can reattempt, but you always have a chance of A) losing the item completely, B) not getting a better result and thus wasting a mat, C) spending 5+ mats trying to create a single item.)

 

Anyways, that's my thoughts, with a bit of credit to Zel for his Weapon Tiers idea